🇮🇳 India Fuel Blend Trade-Off Simulator CEA Policy Stance Mode

Crude Forex Savings

$3.18 B

Displacing ~36.1M bbls/yr

Ethanol Demand

5.74 B L

Target volume required

Sugarcane Diverted

22.1 MMT

~2.3 MMT sugar sacrificed

Water Depletion

6.32 B m³

MH & UP aquifer load

Avg Fleet Mileage Penalty

3.84%

+₹0.18 / km driving cost

Target Blend & Presets E12 (CEA Proposal)

National Ethanol Blend Target E12 (12%)

Brent Crude Oil Price ($/bbl) $78 / bbl

Annual Petrol Demand (MMT) 38.5 MMT

Feedstock Distillation Mix 100% Total

B-Heavy Molasses 45%

Sugarcane Juice / Syrup 25%

Grain / Maize (Distilleries) 20%

C-Heavy Molasses 10%

CEA Advisory Context: India's Chief Economic Adviser cautions that pushing uniformly to E20 strains domestic sugar reserves, forces grain diversion, and imposes calorific mileage penalties on pre-2023 2-wheelers and passenger cars.

Macro Balance: Gains vs Stresses Normalized Scale (0-100)

Food & Agricultural Stress Risk Moderate Stress

Sugar Production Sacrifice: 2.31 MMT

Grain / Maize Diverted: 2.87 MMT

Export Curb Probability: Medium (65%)

Groundwater Extraction: 6.32 B m³ (42% MH, 38% UP)

Vehicle Fleet Cohort Impact & Consumer Economics Base Petrol: ₹100/L | Calorific Value: 32.4 vs 21.2 MJ/L

Cohort / Fleet Segment	Fleet Share	Calorific Drop	Real Mileage Loss	Cost / 100km	Extra Cost / Yr	Material Vulnerability

Policy Scenario Comparison Ledger Saved simulation states for policy review

Scenario	Blend	Ethanol Vol	Forex Saved	Cane Diverted	Water Footprint	Avg Mileage Drop	Action

Ethanol Policy & Fuel Impact Brief