Transmission Levers
Custom Stress
CALIBRATION BENCHMARKS
Oil Exports Volume
1.45 mbpd
China shadow fleet interdiction & tracking
Shadow Intermediary Discount
18 %
Hawala transaction friction & tanker price cut
Accessible Foreign Reserves
$16.5 B
CBI liquid assets free from FATF/asset freeze
Annual Subsidy Outlay (Fuel/Food)
$28.0 B
Preferential exchange rate & bread/energy support
Benchmark Crude Price (Brent)
$78 / bbl
Causal Transmission Topology
Dynamic D3 Pressure Flow
Open Market Rial / USD
685,000
+0.0% vs Baseline
Projected CPI Inflation
44.5%
High Strain
Fiscal Deficit / GDP
8.2%
Structural Gap
Unrest Risk Index
68.4 / 100
Elevated Vulnerability
Transmission Dynamic: Interdiction of crude exports tightens Central Bank forex auctions, driving rapid Rial depreciation in the Bonbast open market. The resulting staple import price spike expands the fiscal deficit, forcing currency printing and driving household unrest past critical thresholds.
Macro Stress Ledger
Strained
| Socio-Economic Sector | Metric | Modeled Level |
|---|---|---|
| Net Energy Revenue | Annual Inflow | $33.8 B |
| Shadow Banking Toll | Intermediary Loss | -$6.1 B |
| Food Basket Inflation | Staple Price CPI | 58.2% |
| Subsidy Fiscal Gap | Unfunded Burden | -$11.5 B |
| Median Real Wage | Purchasing Power Index | 42.8 / 100 |
| FX Cover Ratio | Import Months | 3.2 mos |
Critical Bottleneck Analysis
Import subsidy funding collapse and catastrophic Rial depreciation driving staple food inflation above 90%
Empirical Grounding: Calibrated against post-2018 Maximum Pressure data, Iran Statistical Center CPI reports, IMF Article IV historical consultations, and Reuters energy shipment tracking.