Policy Levers & Inputs
LIVE CALC
Scenario Presets
Macro Endurance Status
Macro Indicators & Reserve Burn Trajectory
STRESSED
Crude Exports (bpd)
1.42M
Net Rev: $2.73B / mo
Endurance Runway
8.6 mo
Exhaustion: Nov 2026
Monthly Fiscal Deficit
$1.65B
Burn rate on reserves
Headline Inflation
41.2%
Rial: 645k / USD
18-Month Liquid Forex Reserve Projection
$B Liquid Reserves vs Threshold
Executive Policy Assessment
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5 Wilting Pillars (Axios Model)
1. Hydrocarbon Interdiction
78/100
Dark fleet tanker tracking & secondary port sanctions.
2. Rial Depreciation & Forex
82/100
Rapid parallel exchange spread and currency flight.
3. Banking & SWIFT Isolation
88/100
Barter friction, money changer haircuts, remittance blocks.
4. Domestic Inflation & Subsidy Burn
74/100
Food/energy subsidy deficit monetization triggering CPI spikes.
5. Industrial & Trade Atrophy
65/100
Capital goods import compression & infrastructure decay.