Iran Sanctions & Maritime Energy Flow Analyzer

Maritime Corridors & STS Transshipment Flow Custom Setting

Export Volume (Iranian Crude)

685,000 bpd

-58.5% from 1.65M bpd peak

Realized Heavy Blend Spread

-$16.80 / bbl

vs Dated Brent benchmark ($76.00)

Shadow Tanker Premium

$11.45 / bbl

Flag decertification & AIS spoofing friction

Net Tehran Monthly Oil Revenue

$0.99 Billion

-$1.82B / mo loss vs baseline

Enforcement Parameters & Interdiction Levers

US Secondary Sanctions Intensity 85%

Chinese Independent (Teapot) Compliance 75%

STS Chokepoint & Flag Interdiction 65%

Financial & Bank Messaging Scrutiny 80%

Corridor Transshipment Diagnostics

• Persian Gulf Origin: Kharg Island & Bandar Abbas (VLCC dark loads)

• STS Transshipment Hubs: Malacca Strait, Riau Archipelago, East Coast Malaysia

• Refinery Clusters: Shandong Teapots (Dongying, Weifang) vs Displaced Floating Storage

Model grounded in Treasury OFAC energy enforcement data, shadow fleet AIS tracking heuristics, and Singapore/Malaysia ship-to-ship crude blend arbitrage.