Bio-Mathematical System SEIR Vector-Host ODEs Culex tritaeniorhynchus Temperature-Driven EIP

JEV Model: Japanese Encephalitis Vector-Host Simulator

What is the JEV model? The Japanese Encephalitis Virus (JEV) transmission model is a deterministic compartmental system mapping viral cycling between Culex mosquito vectors and amplifying hosts (swine and ardeid wading birds), with incidental spillover to dead-end human hosts. Explore the temperature-dependent reproduction number ($R_0$), extrinsic incubation periods, and intervention strategies in real time.

Basic Reprod. Number $R_0$
2.84
● Epidemic Expansion (> 1.0)
Peak Encephalitis Cases Humans
142
Spillover per 100k pop.
Infectious Mosquitoes Vector Force
18.4%
Peak viruliferous proportion
Swine Attack Rate Amplifiers
89.2%
Herd seroconversion

365-Day Vector-Host Epizootic & Spillover Curves

Infected Pigs ($I_p$) Infected Mosquitoes ($I_v \times 10$) Human Clinical Cases ($I_h$) Swine Immune ($R_p$)
Day 365
Hover or scrub to inspect

JEV Zoonotic Transmission Cycle & Dead-End Pathway

Active Cycle Flux: High Transmission

Simulated Trajectory Snapshot (Bi-Weekly Samples)

ODE Solution (RK4 Integrator)
Day Swine S (%) Swine I (%) Swine R (%) Vector Infect. (%) Human Cases Cumulative Cases

1. The Transmission Cycle

Japanese Encephalitis Virus (JEV) is maintained in an enzootic cycle between night-biting Culex mosquitoes (chiefly Culex tritaeniorhynchus breeding in flooded rice fields) and amplifying vertebrate hosts. Pigs exhibit prolonged, high-titer viremia (> $10^5 \text{ PFU/mL}$) without severe clinical mortality, transmitting back to vectors. Ardeid wading birds (egrets and herons) act as maintenance reservoirs.

Swine: dS_p/dt = Λ_p - β_{vp} · a · (I_v/N_p) S_p - μ_p S_p Vector: dS_v/dt = Λ_v - β_{pv} · a · (I_p/N_p) S_v - μ_v S_v

2. Temperature Dependency ($R_0$)

Vector parameters are thermodynamic: ambient temperature dictates both the extrinsic incubation period ($\text{EIP} = 1/\sigma_v$) and biting frequency ($a$). Warmer temperatures between 24°C and 30°C dramatically accelerate viral replication within the mosquito salivary glands, shortening EIP from 14 days to 4 days, resulting in steep exponential jumps in $R_0$. Above 33°C, mosquito survival drops sharply.

R_0 = √[ (m · a^2 · β_{vp} · β_{pv} · σ_v) / (μ_v · (σ_v + μ_v) · (γ_p + μ_p)) ]

3. Dead-End Human Spillover

Humans and equines are accidental dead-end hosts. When an infectious mosquito bites a human, viral titers remain insufficient ($< 10^3 \text{ PFU/mL}$) to infect naive mosquitoes that subsequently feed. While ~99% of human infections are subclinical, ~1% develop acute encephalitis with 20–30% case fatality and 30–50% permanent neurological sequelae.

Spillover: dI_h/dt = β_{vh} · a · (I_v/N_h) S_h - (γ_h + μ_h + δ_h) I_h
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