Measles Outbreak Transmission and Immunity Simulator
Measles is among the most contagious human pathogens with an \(R_0\) of 12–18. This simulator models stochastic transmission across a 500-individual synthetic community to test why falling below the 93.3%–95% herd immunity threshold causes exponential containment failure.
Scenarios:
Outbreak Parameters Live Feedback
Theoretical Herd Threshold: \(1 - \frac{1}{R_0} = 1 - \frac{1}{15} = 93.33\%\). When coverage is 85%, effective \(R = R_0 \times (1 - V) = 15 \times 0.15 = 2.25 > 1\), leading to ongoing community transmission.
Epidemiological Grid (N=500)
Day: 0
Vaccinated
Susceptible
Infected
Recovered
Active vs Cumulative Cases Curve
Simulating
Active Infections
Cumulative Infections
Audited Outbreak Verification Real-time Telemetry
Containment Status
Outbreak Expanding
Effective R > 1.0
Herd Immunity Threshold
93.3%
Measles R0=15 Target
Peak Active Cases
18
Maximum Concurrent
Total Cumulative Cases
47
Out of 500 Population