LLWS ANALYTICS LLWS Big Inning Rally & Leverage Breakdown

ESPN Source Focus: Nevada's 5-run 5th inning in 6-inning youth championship regulation baseball

NEVADA 6
-
OPPONENT 2
Top 5th | 3 Outs
Win Expectancy (WE)
93.8%
Swing: +62.4% (from 31.4%)
Inning Pitch Count
27 Pitches
Starter Total: 88 (85 Cap)
Pitcher Fatigue State
EXHAUSTED (85+)
Mandatory 4-day rest triggered
Leverage Index (LI)
3.42 HIGH
6-Inning Championship Weight
Play 8 of 8
Regulation LLWS Diamond (60-ft Baselines)
3 Outs
46-ft Mound 1B 2B 3B Nevada scores 5 in Top 5th
Inning Win Expectancy Trajectory (6-Inning Model)
Nevada WP %
Top 5th Inning Play-by-Play Log (Nevada Batting)
Click any event row to inspect game state
# Batter Action / Event Outs Bases After Pitches Score Nevada WP% Leverage

6-Inning Shortened Game Leverage

  • 18 Total Outs: A 5-run late rally in the 5th leaves opponent with only 3-6 outs to recover.
  • Win Expectancy Compression: Every run after Inning 4 carries 2.3x the leverage of standard 9-inning MLB baselines.
  • 10-Run Mercy Rule: Leading by 10+ runs after 4 complete innings ends game immediately (15+ after 3).

Little League 85-Pitch Exhaustion Rule

  • Hard 85-Pitch Cap: Pitcher must be removed immediately upon reaching 85 pitches (finish active batter).
  • Rest Day Penalties: 66+ pitches = 4 mandatory calendar days rest; 51-65 pitches = 3 days rest.
  • Bullpen Exposure: Forcing 27 pitches in one inning triggers emergency relief with high WP swings.
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