Tigers 12th Inning Extra-Innings Rally & Ghost Runner Leverage Lab

Comerica Tactical Diamond (Top 12th) Step 1 of 5: Initial Setup

Automate Sequence:

12th Inning Leverage Telemetry High Leverage (LI: 2.84)

Inning Runs Scored

Final Detroit Outburst: 5

Run Expectancy (RE)

1.14

+0.00 RE Delta

Win Expectancy (WE)

50.0%

Detroit WP Baseline

Play 1: Manfred Runner Placed

Automatic runner stationed at 2nd base under MLB extra-innings rules. Baseline run expectancy instantly leaps from 0.48 (clean inning) to 1.14 expected runs with zero outs.

DETROIT WIN PROBABILITY (12TH INNING RALLY) Step 1: 50.0%

Managerial Counterfactual Lab: Test Tactical Divergences Simulate opposing manager strategies against Detroit's 12th-inning setup

Bunt vs. Swing-Away Bunt

Sacrificing the ghost runner to 3rd trades an out for a 90-foot advancement to score on a flyball.

Expected Runs: 1.14 Runs

Intentional Free Pass Normal

Walk the leadoff hitter intentionally to set up force plays at every base and double-play possibility.

Double Play Odds: 18.4% DP Prob

Infield Depth Alignment Normal

Pulling the infield in cuts off the winning or go-ahead run at home plate, but widens groundball gap hits.

Grounder Through%: +0% (Normal)

12th-Inning Arm Fatigue High (Inning 12)

Reliever pitch velocity & command degradation after marathon extra-innings pen usage.

70%

Command Degradation: +1.38x Hard Hit

MLB Ghost Runner Outburst Frequency (10th-12th+) Empirical 2020-2025

How rare is a 5-run explosion in the 12th inning? Modern extra-inning run distributions show visitor outbursts of 5+ runs happen in fewer than 2.8% of frames.

0 Runs

32.1%

1 Run

35.8%

2 Runs

17.5%

3 Runs

8.2%

4 Runs

3.6%

5+ Runs (DET)

2.8%

💡 Key Finding: In 67.9% of modern extra-inning frames, the visiting team scores at least 1 run due to the automatic runner on 2nd, putting extreme pressure on the home bullpen.

Tigers 12th Inning Leverage Dossier Live Synchronized

Audited log of Detroit's game-breaking offensive surge, tracking outs, runner advancement, and leverage swings:

Seq	Action	Outs	Runs	WE%	RE