USPS ELECTION LAB

Mail Ballot Transit & Midterm Deadline Simulator

Quantifying delivery timelines, postmark statutory rules, and operational disruption risks

Voter & Route Setup Ready

Projected Delivery Status
31.4%
Disenfranchisement / Post-Deadline Rejection Risk
On-Time Arrival Confidence
68.6%
Delivered on or before Nov 3, 8:00 PM
Transit Margin & Buffer
3.8 Days
Mean transit under selected policy (4.0d window available)
Monte Carlo Transit Time Distribution (N = 10,000 Deliveries)
Contested Policy Standard Expedited Statutory Cutoff
Day 1 (24h) Day 2 (48h) Day 3 (72h) Day 4 (96h - Deadline) Day 5 (Late) Day 6 (Late) Day 7+
Mail Ballot Journey: Where the Litigated Rule Changes Induce Friction
+1.4 Days Cumulative Friction
Phase 1
Deposit & Clearance
No Extra Evening Trip
Under the contested plan, late collection runs from local drop boxes are discontinued. Ballots deposited post-4 PM sit overnight.
Phase 2
Origin P&DC Sorting
+12–18h Hold
Strict truck dispatch departures forbid holding trailers for late incoming ballots. Unprocessed trays wait for the next day's sort cycle.
Phase 3
Regional Hub Transit
Eliminated Extra Trips
Inter-facility transportation runs on strict static schedules; second or third daily shuttle runs between hubs are prohibited.
Phase 4
Destination Unit (DU)
Standard Intake
Ballot trays arrive at county seat postal station for final sorting into local election clerk delivery route.
Phase 5
Board of Elections Delivery
Receipt Timestamp
Physical handoff to County Board of Elections. Time-stamped against state legal receipt cutoff deadline.
Key Midterm Battlegrounds: Statutory Deadlines vs. Delivery Latency
Mailed 4 Days Prior to Election
State Statutory Rule Receipt Deadline Standard Plan On-Time Contested Plan On-Time Risk Variance