Transit Velocity & Disenfranchisement Projection strict_cutoff_enforced
On-Time Tabulated Ballots
Disqualified Late Ballots
Statutory Cutoff (Day 0 + Grace)
Pre vs. Post-Ruling Policy Delta
Standardized 100,000 Ballot Benchmark| Policy Regime | Grace Window | Avg Transit | Late Ballots | Disenfranchisement Rate | Status |
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Methodology & Legal Context
This model applies empirical USPS transit distribution parameters (log-normal curves skewed right for sorting hub routing) against state statutory receipt windows. Under the Supreme Court's ruling invalidating federal and state administrative grace extensions, election boards without explicit legislative postmark grace provisions are legally compelled to enforce strict receipt by poll closing. Rural and spoke-and-hub postal routes experience substantially higher standard deviations in transit, leading to asymmetric ballot disqualification in outlying precincts.