Separate market evidence from market narrative.
Trace every claim to a source, compare contradictions, test scenarios, and define what would change your mind before acting.
76%8 primary or cited items
32 unresolved
2Older than selected horizon
-18% to +29%Illustrative, not a forecast
-24%High-stress path
72/100Confidence 61–80
Claim and citation ledger
Facts, calculations, interpretations, forecasts, and promotion remain distinct.
10 claims
| Claim | Type | Source | Support | Contradicts | Freshness | Confidence | Status |
|---|
Source provenance
Primary status, freshness, conflicts, and direct URLs.
Signal weight map
Weights expose judgment; they are not objective truth.
Scenario and assumption comparison
Probabilities must total 100%; ranges are synthetic planning outputs.
| Case | Probability | Illustrative range | Key assumption | Invalidation |
|---|
Probabilities total 100%.
Event and catalyst timeline
Timing can be aligned without claiming causation.
Bias, conflict, and next-step checks
Slow down the research process before acting.