Market Question: Situational Awareness raises new capital by August 31?
Toggle real-time catalyst rumors or verified intel to update true probability curves using Bayes' Theorem ($P(A|B) = \frac{P(B|A)P(A)}{P(B)}$).
Comparing Long YES vs. Long NO contract payoffs against subjective true probability
Binary option contract decay curve approaching August 31 resolution
Estimates price impact, effective entry cost, and true net EV across order sizes up to $50,000.
| Order Size ($) | Est. Slippage (%) | Avg. Exec Price | Effective EV/Dollar | Net Expected Profit | Status / Risk Grade |
|---|
Position recommendation calibrated for $10,000 portfolio bankroll against a 31.0% implied market probability. With assessed true probability at 42.0%, positive expected value is +35.48% per dollar. Full Kelly criterion dictates allocating 15.94% ($1,594.20) for an expected profit return of $565.62.