Marlins Walk-Off Win Expectancy & Late-Inning Leverage Lab

Clutch Sequence Replay Bottom 9th Walk-off

AWAY

Opponent

3 - 4

Marlins Walk-off Victory Complete

MIA

Marlins (Home)

OUTS:

WIN EXPECTANCY (WE) EVOLUTION 100.0% Win Prob

Chronological Play Step

Play WPA Swing

+0.52 WPA

Leverage Index (LI)

4.15 (Extreme)

Sanoja Total Clutch

+0.86 WPA

Win Expectancy

100.0%

9th Inning Walk-Off: With the score tied 3-3 and runners on 1st & 2nd (1 out, bottom 9th, 4.15 LI), Javier Sanoja drives a walk-off RBI knock to score the winning run, adding +0.52 WPA and securing the 4-3 Marlins victory!

Counterfactual Leverage Sandbox Empirical Model

Simulate custom game states to test Win Expectancy shifts and calculate how historical base-out configurations alter clutch leverage in late innings.

Inning & Half

Outs Recorded

Base Occupancy

Score Differential (Home)

Calculated Base WE

68.5%

Calculated LI

3.85

Hit WPA Delta

+0.315

Sanoja Clutch Game Log

Inn	State	Play Action	LI	WPA
Bot 8	2 Out, 2nd	J. Sanoja RBI Single (Ties 3-3)	3.42	+0.34
Bot 9	1 Out, 1st & 2nd	J. Sanoja Walk-Off RBI Hit	4.15	+0.52