Transmission Spatial Dynamics
500 Individuals | Direct airborne collision & contact probability
Context (Pennsylvania Public Health): A recent measles fatality in an unvaccinated 40-year-old underscores that without herd immunity (typically ≥ 93.3% for measles R0 ∼ 12–18), viral transmission penetrates adult unimmunized pockets, causing severe respiratory and neurologic complications.
Herd Immunity Threshold
93.3%
Required coverage (1 - 1/R0)
Peak Active Cases
42
Max concurrent infectious
Total Infections
88
Cumulative infected cohort
Estimated Deaths
2
High-risk unimmunized mortality
82%
15.0
3 Days
Rapid Contact Tracing & Post-Exposure MMR
Outbreak Progression Telemetry
Simulating...
Outbreak Duration: 45 Days
Vulnerable Cohort: 40yo Unimmunized
Immunity Gap: 11.3% Deficit
Protection Factor: Moderate
Epidemiological Grounding & Sourcing:
Based on Pennsylvania Dept. of Health reports and CDC surveillance data for measles (R0 12–18, incubation 10–14 days, aerosol contagiousness up to 2 hours post-room clearance).