Measles Outbreak & Surveillance Case Definition Tracker

Surveillance Parameters Model v3.8

Jurisdiction Baseline

Base Observed Cases 1,420

Effective Transmission Rate (R₀) 1.45

Population MMR Coverage 88.5%

CSTE Case Definition

Surveillance Strictness

Laboratory Confirmation Required RT-PCR detection or positive measles-specific IgM

Clinical Rash & Fever (≥38.3°C) Generalized maculopapular rash lasting ≥3 days

Contributing Complications Include secondary viral pneumonia & encephalitis deaths

Simulated Total Cases

3105

Estimated total secondary & tertiary burden

Standardized Measles Deaths

Classified via CSTE protocol

Surveillance Sensitivity

94.2%

Case ascertainment confidence

Case Fatality Rate (CFR)

0.39%

Per 1,000 incident infections

Projected 16-Week Epidemic Curve

Weekly incident infections with trajectory projection

Peak: Week 7

Wk 1Wk 4Wk 8Wk 12Wk 16

Standardized Mortality Breakdown

CDC/CSTE hierarchical case criteria audit

Confirmed Measles Deaths Clinical presentation + Lab PCR/IgM or direct autopsy confirmation

Probable Measles Deaths Meets clinical criteria with direct epi-linkage to verified outbreak

Suspected Measles Deaths Compatible rash & fever with contributing respiratory arrest

Under the current Standard CSTE Protocol, 75.0% of mortality events meet lab-confirmed thresholds. Adjusting criteria sensitivity affects reporting latency and state surveillance harmonization.

Surveillance Cluster	Reported Cases	Modeled Total	Confirmed Deaths	Probable Deaths	Suspected Deaths	CSTE Protocol Status