Measles Outbreak Trajectory & Containment Simulator

Model Configuration SEIR Engine

Operational Presets

Vaccination Coverage 88.5%

Herd immunity target: 95.0% (CDC standard for measles)

Basic Reproduction (R₀) 15.0

Measles is among the most airborne contagious pathogens (R₀ 12–18)

Contact Tracing Delay 4 days

Time to isolate contacts and deploy post-exposure prophylaxis

Initial Cluster Size 12 cases

Primary index cases entering unimmunized pockets

Monitored Community 100,000

Standardized regional health jurisdiction cohort

Clinical Reference: Measles incubation averages 10–12 days with infectious window ~8 days. With coverage below 95%, exponential spread occurs in unprotected school and day-care cohorts.

Epidemiological Telemetry Sim Day 120 / Horizon

Peak Active Cases 4,150 Day 38 peak

Cumulative Deaths 4 PA benchmark: 4 deaths

Herd Immunity Target 95.0% -6.5% immunity gap

Containment Index Peak Eff. R = 1.73

Susceptible (S)

Exposed/Latent (E)

Active Infectious (I)

Immune/Recovered (R)

Cumulative Fatalities

Simulation calibrated with Pennsylvania Department of Health & CDC measles mortality rates.