Cross-Border Trade Supply Flow Network
US Hub
Mexico Hub
Tariff Vector / Friction
Sector Flow Stress Matrix
| Sector | Mex Exp ($B) | US Exp ($B) | Vulnerability | Flow Stress |
|---|
Diplomatic Counter-Strategy Assessment
Mexico's posture of Targeted Retaliation concentrates tariffs on politically sensitive US agricultural exports while maintaining open dialogue on USMCA enforcement.
"By targeting surgical strikes rather than broad escalation, Mexico seeks to create domestic US legislative counter-pressures while preserving core manufacturing integration."
Diplomatic Leverage Score: 68/100
USMCA Continuity: Stable
Mexico-US Bilateral Trade Policy Assessment Summary
Under the active scenario (Targeted Retaliation), bilateral trade volume contracts by -8.2%, driving a US consumer cost spike of $18.5B and a Mexico GDP contraction of -1.4% with an overall escalation risk index of 62.