Presidential Tariff Power & Trade Friction Matrix

Avg Tariff Wedge

14.5%

Across $1.51T Imports

Household Added Cost

$1,120/yr

Median Q3 Household

Total Consumer Tax

$164.2B

Annual Direct Markups

Global Friction Index

68 / 100

High Retaliatory Risk

Constitutional Deference

Unilateral

Low Judicial Check

Policy & Delegation Levers

Statutory Delegation Regime

Judicial Deference Barrier

Executive Base Tariff Surcharge (%)

15%

Supply Chain Passthrough Rate (%)

85%

Foreign Retaliatory Multiplier

1.2x

Economist Policy Logic: Statutes conferring broad unilateral emergency powers bypass judicial scrutiny and permit widespread consumer tax wedges while provoking multilateral retaliatory spirals.

Supply Chain Price Wedge & Retaliation Dynamics

SUPPLY CHAIN COST DECOMPOSITION ($B)

TRADING PARTNER RETALIATION ESCALATION

Key Sector Price Wedges ($1.51T Import Base)

Sector Category	Baseline Imports	Import Share	Effective Tariff	Price Passthrough	Annual Inflation Added	Demand Contraction

Policy & Delegation Levers

Supply Chain Price Wedge & Retaliation Dynamics

Household Annual Expenditure Added Burden by Income Quintile

Key Sector Price Wedges ($1.51T Import Base)