Michigan Miracle Finish: Late-Game Win Probability & Drive Breakdown

🏈 4th-Quarter Clutch Drive Flow

← Michigan Endzone Ball on OPP 46 (Michigan Territory) Opponent Endzone →

Play Sequence: 4 of 5 (4th & 15 at OPP 46) ⏱ 00:37 4Q

Miracle 4th-and-15 conversion down the sideline

Improbable clutch strike across the defense to convert and set Michigan up with 1st-and-goal at the 3-yard line.

Down: 4th & 15 EPA: +3.20 WPA: +54.0% Leverage: Critical (4.8x)

Win Probability

68.0%

Play WPA Delta

+54.0%

Expected Points (EPA)

+3.20

Win Odds Index

2.1 : 1

📈 Win Probability Trajectory

Interactive D3.js Curve

⚖ Counterfactual Decision Lab

Live Solver

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Yards to Gain (4th Down): 15 yards

Seconds Remaining in 4Q: 37s

Play Call Decision:

Optimal Decision Verdict: At 4th & 15 from the OPP 46 with 37s remaining down by 4, passing yields an expected WP of 68% on conversion vs < 2% if punting or missing a 63-yard FG. Going for it is +66% net WP leverage.

📄 Drive Report & Data Export

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Initial Win Probability (2:14): 11.0%

Lowest Trough (1:12 Sack): 14.0% (-8.0% WPA)

Turning Point (4th & 15): +54.0% WPA Surge

Walk-Off Final Status: 100% Win (Touchdown)