2026 MLB Postseason Championship Bracket
October Crown
Projected World Series Champion
Postseason Simulation Engine & Log5 Methodology
Log5 Head-to-Head Win Expectancy
Individual game probabilities are determined via Bill James' Log5 formula: P(A wins) = (pA - pA*pB) / (pA + pB - 2*pA*pB), where true talent win ratings are derived from weighted regular season Pythagorean expectation and rotational FIP.
Short Series Pitching Compression
In the Wild Card (Bo3) and Division Series (Bo5), elite rotations carry amplified win leverage because teams eliminate the #4 and #5 starters. The simulator boosts ace rotation WAR by the configured Pitcher Leverage factor.
Dynamic Reseeding & Home Field
The simulator accurately applies MLB bracket rules: higher seeds host all games in the Wild Card round, followed by 2-2-1 format in the DS, and 2-3-2 in the LCS and World Series (with home field decided by regular-season winning percentage).