Tesla Model Y #1 Global Sales Race & Pacing Simulator 2026

Validating Kalshi best-seller market trajectory against ICE/Hybrid & BEV contenders across 4 key global regions.
Tesla Model Y: Leader (+43k YTD)

Cumulative Deliveries & Full-Year Projections (Units)

Model Y Projected Total 1,228,000
RAV4 Projected Total 1,162,000
Projected Margin +66,000
RAV4 Req. Monthly Pace 114,250/mo

Leaderboard & Regional Mix

Model Y leads by 43,000 units YTD through August. Competitors need +16.5% monthly acceleration in Q4 to flip the ranking.
Model Type YTD Full Year Gap
Regional Weightings: Model Y (China 38%, US 31%, EU 22%, ROW 9%) | RAV4 (US 52%, China 21%, EU 16%, ROW 11%).
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