Live Model Decision Desk: New Hampshire Open Senate Primary Simulation

New Hampshire Senate Primary Tracker & Precinct Swing Simulator

Simulating key county turnout, reporting precinct rates, and candidate margins

Candidate A Leads Projected Primary
Projected Margin: +1,908 votes
Candidate A PROJ. SHARE
50.8%
60,598 projected votes
Candidate B PROJ. SHARE
49.2%
58,602 projected votes
TOTAL PROJECTED VOTES
119,200
AVERAGE PRECINCTS REPORTING
81.5%
EST. UNCOUNTED BALLOTS
21,612
KEY COUNTY ADVANTAGE
Candidate A (3 of 4)

County-by-County Swing & Turnout Control

Adjust to stress-test outcomes

County Summary Breakdown

4 Key Counties
County Turnout Cand A % Cand B % Rep. %

Export Simulation Data

Download model parameters, county vote splits, and precinct tallies for reporting.

Methodology Note: Open primary calculations weight vote share across Hillsborough, Rockingham, Merrimack, and Strafford counties. Precinct reporting rates dictate projected outstanding uncounted tallies based on historical turnout baselines.
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