New Hampshire Senate Battleground & Cook Political Rating Simulator

County Swing Workbench

Simulated vote total: 505000 active simulated electorate

Hillsborough County (Manchester/Nashua) Baseline D+2 235,000 registered

0.0%

Rockingham County (Portsmouth/Salem) Baseline R+3 215,000 registered

0.0%

Grafton County (Hanover/Plymouth) Baseline D+12 55,000 registered

0.0%

Independent Turnout Share (Undeclared Voters) 42.0%

Statewide Swing Multiplier (National Environment) 1.05x

Historical Context: Jeanne Shaheen won re-election in 2020 by 15.6 points. Her retirement removes incumbency advantage, prompting Cook Political Report's downgrade to Toss Up. Hillsborough and Rockingham represent ~89% of this modeled 505,000 voter block.

Senate Control & Vote Margin

Live D3 simulation results

Democrats: 49 Battleground: NH Seat Republicans: 50

50-50 Tie Threshold

49D

50R

Senate Control Status: Pivotal (50-50 Tie Scenario Enabled)

Projected Winner

Toss Up / Lean Dem Margin < 1.8%

Dem Total Votes

254,414

GOP Total Votes

250,586

Live Scenario Snapshot (JSON)

Simulated State Summary: 505000 votes modeled across 3 key counties. Rating status: Toss Up. Projected Winner: Toss Up / Lean Dem Margin < 1.8%. Senate Impact: Pivotal (50-50 Tie Scenario Enabled).