2016–2021 Deceased Cohort Matrix (344 Deceased Players)
Conservative 25% Bound
Confirmed Neuropathology (BMJ Floor, n=86)
Statistically Imputed CTE (n=0)
CTE Negative / Unaffected (n=258)
Epidemiological takeaway: Even if zero percent of un-autopsied deceased NFL players had neuropathology, the confirmed cases alone lock in a conservative lower bound of 25.0% (1 in 4). At moderate plausible imputation (35%), true cohort prevalence approaches 51.2%.
| ID | Position Group | Career Seasons | Age at Death | Post-Mortem Status | Modeled CTE Probability |
|---|
BMJ Study Design & Cohort Denominator Method
Prior CTE brain-bank autopsies suffered from severe selection bias (families of players showing cognitive/mood decline were far more likely to donate brains, yielding >90% positive findings). The BMJ study addressed this by identifying an unselected, all-cause denominator of all 344 NFL players who died between 2016 and 2021.
- Total Cohort (N): 344 deceased NFL players (2016–2021).
- Autopsied Confirmed CTE (C): 86 players verified with definitive tau neuropathology.
- Conservative Lower Bound: 86 / 344 = 25.0% (Assuming all 258 unexamined cases were negative).
- Bayesian Imputation: True Rate = [86 + (258 × θ)] / 344, where θ is the un-autopsied latent prevalence.