NFL TNF QB Matchup & Prime Time Analytics Workbench

DET

Detroit Lions

Jared Goff

Pocket Precision • Play-Action Master

Model Win Probability

DET 45.8% BUF 54.2%

Baseline: 8:15pm ET Prime Video

BUF

Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen

Dual-Threat Dynamo • Off-Script Creator

Situational Scenarios

Live Game Lever

Matchup Presets

Passing EPA / Play +0.24

-0.10 (Struggling)+0.20 (Elite)+0.50 (MVP Peak)

Red Zone TD Efficiency 65.2%

40% (Stall)65% (Avg)85% (Lethal)

Prime-Time Under-Lights Factor 1.15x

0.80x (Hesitant)1.0x (Standard)1.40x (Clutch)

3rd & Medium Conversion Rate 48.0%

D3.js Vector Polygon

Jared Goff (Detroit Lions) Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)

Active Model

Expected Drive Success Probabilities

Lions Scoring Drive: 46.2%

Bills Scoring Drive: 52.8%

Advanced Situational Efficiency

Pressure Avoidance: Goff: 72.4% | Allen: 81.0%

Explosive Play Rate (>20y): Goff: 11.4% | Allen: 14.2%

Prime Video Slot: 8:15pm ET Thursday

Audited Game-Prep Result

Buffalo Bills win probability stands at 54.2% vs Detroit Lions at 45.8%.

Parameters: Goff EPA +0.24, RZ 65.2% | Allen EPA +0.28, RZ 68.5% | TNF Factor 1.15x.

Status: Model Calibrated Slug: nfl-tnf-qb-analytics-55