Game State Controls
NFL historical baseline: ~48% (recent seasons: 41%-55%)
NFL 33-yard kick historical average: ~94.0%
2-Point Conversion EV
0.96
Expected Points (p = 48.0%)
PAT Kick EV
0.94
Expected Points (p = 94.0%)
Win Probability Edge by 2-Point Conversion Rate
Break-even: ~47.0%
Late-Game Split Verdict: Trailing by 2 with 2:00 remaining in the 4th quarter, making the 2-point conversion immediately ties the game (50% overtime baseline), whereas failing leaves a 2-point deficit. Standard PAT leaves the team trailing by 1 point, still requiring a defensive stop and another scoring drive. Analytics favor the aggressive attempt by +3.4% win probability.