Playoff Probability
12.8%
Hist. 0-3 base rate: 3.8%
Division Crown Odds
4.2%
Requires ~11-6 finish
Median Projected Record
8 - 9
8-6 in remaining 14
Target Elimination Risk
Wk 13
Earliest 8th loss date
10,000 Season Runout Win Distribution
Simulated final records for remaining 14 games. Highlighted bars qualify for the postseason.
Playoff Bound
Eliminated
Remaining Survival Gauntlet (Weeks 4 – 18)
Cumulative required win-probability runway to stay alive for the target threshold.
🗓️ Remaining 14-Game Schedule Matrix
Adjust individual matchup win chances or lock game-by-game results (Win / Loss / Sim).
| Wk | Opponent | Location | Base Opp Rating | Win Chance (%) | Lock Outcome | Leverage Index |
|---|
🏛️ The 0-3 Hall of Miracles (1990 – Present)
Since the 1990 playoff expansion, 160+ teams started 0-3. Exactly 6 survived to make the postseason (~3.8%).
⚡ 1992 San Diego Chargers
11 - 5
Started 0-4! Went on a historic 11-1 blitz under Bobby Ross to capture the AFC West title. Won Wildcard 17-0 over Kansas City.
Final: 11-5
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Div Champions
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Turnover diff: +19
🐂 2018 Houston Texans
11 - 5
Reeled off 9 consecutive wins after an 0-3 start under Bill O'Brien, featuring Deshaun Watson and J.J. Watt to clinch the AFC South.
Final: 11-5
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9-Game Win Streak
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AFC South #3
🦬 1998 Buffalo Bills
10 - 6
Switched to Doug Flutie at quarterback, rallied from 0-3 to 10-6, claiming an AFC Wildcard spot in a bruising conference.
Final: 10-6
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Wildcard Seed #5
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Flutie Magic
🦁 1995 Detroit Lions
10 - 6
Powered by Barry Sanders (1,500 yards) and Herman Moore, Detroit caught fire winning 7 straight games down the stretch.
Final: 10-6
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Wildcard Seed #5
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7 Straight Wins
Analytical Methodology: How the Monte Carlo Engine Works +
Baseline Probability Model: Each remaining game's probability is derived from a log5 odds ratio factoring