Nigeria Economic Reform & Living Cost Impact Simulator

Macro Shock Transmission & Household Budget Erosion Model

Macro Policy Levers

PMS Fuel Price (NGN/Litre) ₦185

Baseline subsidy was ₦185/L; current post-removal price ranges ₦850–₦1,050/L.

Official FX Rate (NGN / USD) ₦460

Naira floatation shifted exchange rate from official ₦460/$ to parallel/NAFEM rates above ₦1,500/$.

Electricity Tariff (NGN/kWh) ₦68

Band A subsidy withdrawal elevated tariffs from ₦68 to ₦206–₦225 per kWh.

Palliative / Relief Transfer (NGN/mo) ₦0

Direct household social safety net stipend offset.

Socio-Economic Income Profile

Informal Worker / Micro-trader: Baseline income ~₦85,000/mo. High food expenditure share (60%).

Monthly Baseline Income ₦85,000 Fixed monthly earnings

Simulated Living Cost ₦78,200 +0.0% vs May 2023 Baseline

Net Monthly Balance +₦6,800 Surplus before inflation

Purchasing Power Loss 0.0% Cumulative real income erosion

Household Budget Breakdown (NGN)

Baseline vs Reform Shock

Living Cost Inflation Across Tiers

Socio-economic impact contrast

● Model Active: Real-time calculation running

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