Roster Health Matrix & Stress Testing
Modulate Games Missed (0-17)
Unit Ratings & EPA Breakdown
WAR Lost: 0.40
Offensive Efficiency
+0.14
EPA / Pass Play (Base +0.17)
QB Unit: 98/100
OL Pass Protect: 92/100
Playmaker Depth: 95/100
Defensive Efficiency
-0.08
EPA Allowed / Play (Base -0.09)
Pass Rush Havoc: 96/100
Linebacker Anchor: 98/100
Secondary Coverage: 90/100
Monte Carlo Playoff Odds (1,000 Runs)
1,000 Iterations
Division Title (NFC West)
81.5%
vs LAR, ARI, SEA
NFC Champion (Super Bowl App.)
38.2%
Gauntlet vs DET/PHI/GB
Playoff Seed Distribution
17-Game Schedule Impact
Expected Record: 12.1 - 4.9
| Wk | Opponent | Base Spread | Inj-Adj Spread | Win Probability |
|---|
Historical 49ers Health Precedents (AGL vs Outcome)
2019 Season
13-3 (Super Bowl LIV)
AGL: 38.2 (Top 5 Healthy)
2020 Season
6-10 (Missed Playoffs)
AGL: 166.1 (#32 Most Injured)
2022 Season
13-4 (NFC Champ)
AGL: 64.0 (Purdy emergence)
2023 Season
12-5 (Super Bowl LVIII)
AGL: 42.1 (Elite Core Health)