SF 49ers

49ers Roster Health & Super Bowl Trajectory Simulator

NFL Network Analytics Engine • Star Availability vs Championship Ceiling
STARTER HEALTH MATRIX 17-Game Regular Season
SCENARIO PRESETS
*Calculated using player-level on/off EPA/play splits, baseline backup replacement curves, and strength-of-schedule leverage.
PROJECTED TRAJECTORY & SUPER BOWL PROBABILITIES Roster Health: 100%
Expected Wins
13.2
+3.4 vs Baseline
Net EPA / Play
+0.19
Tier 1 Elite
NFC West Title
78.4%
#1 Seed Odds: 46%
Super Bowl Win %
21.4%
NFL Rank #1
17-GAME REGULAR SEASON WIN PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION Mean: 13.2 Wins
POSTSEASON SURVIVABILITY RUN (1,000 MONTE CARLO TRIALS) 1,000 Sims Active
Make Playoffs
94.8%
Reach NFCCG
49.2%
NFC Champions
33.5%
Lombardi Win
21.4%
17-GAME SCHEDULE WIN PROBABILITIES Adaptive vs Active Personnel
Analyst Takeaway: At full health, Kyle Shanahan's system generates an NFL-best +0.19 Net EPA/play, securing the #1 NFC seed 46% of the time with a 21.4% Super Bowl conversion rate.
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