STARTER HEALTH MATRIX
17-Game Regular Season
SCENARIO PRESETS
*Calculated using player-level on/off EPA/play splits, baseline backup replacement curves, and strength-of-schedule leverage.
PROJECTED TRAJECTORY & SUPER BOWL PROBABILITIES
Roster Health: 100%
Expected Wins
13.2
+3.4 vs Baseline
Net EPA / Play
+0.19
Tier 1 Elite
NFC West Title
78.4%
#1 Seed Odds: 46%
Super Bowl Win %
21.4%
NFL Rank #1
17-GAME REGULAR SEASON WIN PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Mean: 13.2 Wins
POSTSEASON SURVIVABILITY RUN (1,000 MONTE CARLO TRIALS)
1,000 Sims Active
Make Playoffs
94.8%
Reach NFCCG
49.2%
NFC Champions
33.5%
Lombardi Win
21.4%
17-GAME SCHEDULE WIN PROBABILITIES
Adaptive vs Active Personnel