New York State Budget Gap Rollercoaster & Stress-Test Workbench

Adjusted Cumulative Shortfall

$124.4B

Baseline Projection

Peak Deficit Year

FY 2023-24

$36.4B Deficit

Balanced Fiscal Years

1 Year

FY 2022-23 Baseline

Average Annual Gap

$17.8B

Across 7 tracked periods

Deficit Trajectory ($ Billions)

Baseline Deficit

Stress-Tested Path

Policy Stress-Tester

Preset Scenarios:

Tax Revenue Growth Shift 0.0%

Applies annual compound revenue yield adjustments across FY 2024–2027.

Spending Moderation / Cut 0.0%

Reduces total state operational disbursement spending growth.

Federal Grant Extension $0.0B / yr

Simulates extended federal pandemic stimulus wave into post-2023 cliff years.

Rainy Day Reserve Drawdown $0.0B / yr

Deploys state reserves to absorb peak deficit spikes.

Annual Fiscal Impact & Comptroller Notes

Fiscal Year	Baseline Gap ($B)	Policy Adjustment ($B)	Adjusted Shortfall ($B)	Status	Comptroller Context & Notes

Fiscal Audit Provenance: FY 2020-2027 figures sourced from official NY State Comptroller financial reports ($124.4B cumulative 8-year baseline gap). Stress-test equations model net gap = max(0, Baseline - TaxYield - SpendingSavings - FedAid - ReserveDraw).