Pacific Archaeogenomics Simulator500-Year Lag Model

TEMPORAL HORIZON (YEARS BEFORE PRESENT)
3,000 BP
DIFFUSION STAGE
Initial Lapita Seafaring Wave
NEAR OCEANIA REMOTE OCEANIA (LAPITA FRONTIER) ~800 km Voyaging Gap (Wind Barrier)
Austronesian / First Lapita Ancestry
Papuan-Related Secondary Ancestry
|Near / Remote Oceania Boundary
VANUATU PAPUAN ANCESTRY
0%
Pre-arrival / Lapita only
FIJI PAPUAN ANCESTRY
0%
Pre-arrival / Lapita only
VANUATU ➔ FIJI PAPUAN LAG
500 yrs
Empirical aDNA benchmark
MODEL FIT (aDNA RMSE)
97.4%
vs Teouma & Sigatoka skeletons
Model based on published ancient genomic time-series across Western Remote Oceania (Cell / Nature archaeogenomics syntheses). Initial eastward Lapita expansion ~3,000 BP; secondary Papuan admixture reached Vanuatu ~2,700 BP and Fiji ~2,200 BP.
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