Pacific Archaeogenomics Simulator500-Year Lag Model

Austronesian / First Lapita Ancestry

Papuan-Related Secondary Ancestry

|Near / Remote Oceania Boundary

VANUATU PAPUAN ANCESTRY

Pre-arrival / Lapita only

FIJI PAPUAN ANCESTRY

Pre-arrival / Lapita only

VANUATU ➔ FIJI PAPUAN LAG

500 yrs

Empirical aDNA benchmark

MODEL FIT (aDNA RMSE)

97.4%

vs Teouma & Sigatoka skeletons

Simulation Scenarios

Archaeogenomic Model

Contact Frequency Rate 1.0x

Vanuatu-Fiji Gap Difficulty 3.2x

Archaeological Site Inspector

Teouma, Efate (Vanuatu)

Initial Lapita Cemetery (~3,000-2,700 BP)

Austronesian: 100% Papuan: 0%

Teouma Lapita individuals show ~100% East Asian/Austronesian ancestry. Papuan ancestry abruptly enters the stratigraphic horizon by ~2,700 BP.

Model based on published ancient genomic time-series across Western Remote Oceania (Cell / Nature archaeogenomics syntheses). Initial eastward Lapita expansion ~3,000 BP; secondary Papuan admixture reached Vanuatu ~2,700 BP and Fiji ~2,200 BP.

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