Price Transmission Cascade Engine (Crude → Crack Spread → Retail)
Live D3 Pipeline
Under 1.80 mbpd Iranian export restraint with 75% enforcement, net market loss is 1.05 mbpd after SPR offsets. Brent crude responds by +$13.20/bbl (+$0.31/gal crude component).
Retail Gas Gallon Cost Decomposition
Baseline vs Shocked
| Supply Stage Component | Baseline ($/gal) | Simulated ($/gal) | Delta ($/gal) | Share of Pump Price |
|---|
Household Energy Exposure
Annual Gallons Consumed:
531.5 gal
Monthly Gasoline Bill:
$165.60
Monthly Cost Delta:
+$14.25 / mo
National Consumer Burden:
$44.8 Billion / yr
Geopolitical Precedents
1979 Iranian Revolution
+130% Pump
Loss of ~3.5 mbpd removed ~5% of global output; stagflation catalyst.
1990 Gulf War Invasion
+40% Pump
4.3 mbpd Kuwait/Iraq supply loss offset by Saudi surge & SPR drawdown.
2022 Ukraine Invasion Shock
+52% Pump
Brent hit $130/bbl, US national pump average peaked at $5.01/gal.