OpenAI Infrastructure Cash Burn & Revenue Model Simulator

Model Parameters Live Dynamic Solver

Datacenter Target Capacity 12 GW

Cumulative multi-site power commitments (Stargate / Microsoft clusters).

Base Cluster & Hardware Cost $45B/yr

Annual specialized GPU/accelerator procurement & fab reservation fees.

Annual Revenue Growth Rate 85%

API, enterprise ChatGPT, agentic subscription annualized compound rate.

Enterprise Adoption Multiplier 1.2x

Weighting for enterprise seat monetization and custom model deployments.

Financial Times Context: OpenAI's aggressive commitment to multi-gigawatt datacenters requires enormous front-loaded capital expenditure. Operating cash flow hinges on subscription growth accelerating before GPU depreciation catches up.

TOTAL PROJECTED BURN (2024-30)

$278.4B

Cumulative net financing required

ENDING REVENUE (2030)

$114.2B

Projected ARR at maturity

CROSSOVER YEAR

2028

Revenue overtakes annual capex

PEAK ANNUAL BURN RATE

2027

$68.4B in peak capex cycle

Multi-Stream Financial Projection Trajectory

Annual Cash Burn

Infrastructure Capex

Projected Revenue

Cumulative Burn

Annual Cash Flow & Capex Schedule ($ Billions)

Year	Revenue	Infra Capex	Compute Opex	Net Annual Cash Burn	Cumulative Burn