Microsoft-OpenAI AI Revenue Dependency & Market Probability Simulator

Scenario Workbench

Scenario Presets

MSFT Annualized AI Rev ($B) $10.0B

OpenAI Revenue Share (%)

Azure Enterprise Growth Rate (%) 25%

Revenue Decoupling Rate (%) 5%

Contract Parameters

Contract Strike Share (%) 65.0%

Market Volatility (Implied σ) 18%

Live Market Depth & Implied Probability Density Simulating 1,000 Orderbook Paths

Contract Yes Price $0.72 72.0% Probability

Implied Revenue Impact $6.85B Direct OpenAI Rev

Concentration Risk Delta High Decoupling Sensitivity: 1.4x

Proof Surface State: Hydrating initial disclosure state...