Pandemic Mortality Divergence Explorer

Decoupling analysis: How America’s COVID-19 mortality separated from peer nations post-vaccine rollout

US Actual Mortality
342 /100k
1,130,000 deaths total
Peer Average Mortality
166 /100k
UK: 265, DE: 204, CA: 138, JP: 58
Counterfactual US Mortality
204 /100k
-138 per 100k vs Actual
Estimated Averted US Deaths
148,000
31% post-vaccine reduction
Mortality Trajectory per 100,000 (2020 – 2023)
US Actual US Counterfactual UK Germany Canada Japan
Highlight Pandemic Wave:
Counterfactual Model Controls
US Overall Vaccine Uptake Target 88%
Actual US plateau: ~68% vs Peer Avg: ~84%
High-Risk (65+) Booster Ceiling 95%
Actual US 65+ booster: 71% vs UK/DE: ~93%
Booster Velocity Shift (Days) -45 days
Accelerating 3rd doses prior to Delta/Omicron surge
Demographic Risk Deficit Matrix
CohortUS VaxPeer AvgRisk Weight
18–4964%81%0.08x
50–6476%89%0.35x
65–7488%96%1.40x
75+86%97%3.80x
Enjoy this tool? Build your own with Super