PNE Deal Valuation Gap & M&A Bid Simulator

Public Share Price Market Cap: €560.2M

DCF Fundamental Value €8.45 Implied EV: €740.2M

PE LBO Max Bid €6.52 Max Debt: 5.5x EV/EBITDA

Valuation Gap (Top Bid) -18.20% Bids Trail Public Cap

Deal Scenarios & Inputs

Preset Scenarios:

Pipeline MW Value €65k / MW

Applied to 8,900 MW renewable pipeline

Operational Assets €1,100k / MW

Applied to 370 MW active generation

WACC (Discount Rate) 7.5%

PE LBO Debt Leverage 5.5x EBITDA

Sponsor Target IRR 12.0%

Strategic Top Bid Floor €6.80 / share

Valuation Spectrum & Waterfall Bounds (€ / Share) D3.js Dynamic Spectrum Map

Primary Deal Dilemma Diagnostic

Incoming strategic bids (€6.80/share) and Private Equity LBO ceilings (€6.52/share) remain 18.2% below PNE's fundamental DCF fair value (€8.45/share) and public market trading levels (€7.31/share). Higher cost of capital (7.5% WACC) restricts PE buyers from bridging the bid-ask gap.

MSIP Sponsor Return Dilemma (IRR Matrix) 38.9% Stake Exit Sensitivity

Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners (MSIP) acquired its stake at an estimated effective cost basis of €6.00/share. Matrix projects sponsor 5-year IRR across exit tender offer prices:

Tender Offer Price	Implied EV	Sponsor Proceeds	Estimated 5-Yr IRR

Tender Offer Arbitrage & Closing Probability

Proposed Tender Offer Price €7.50 / share

Implied Takeover Premium vs Public (€7.31): +2.6%

Implied Takeover Premium vs Top Bid (€6.80): +10.3%

Estimated Shareholder Acceptance Probability: 42.5%

MSIP Return at Proposed Tender: 9.3% IRR

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