M&A Decision Outcome Tree
Live D3 Dynamic Branching
Scenario Matrix & Value Breakdown
| Outcome Path | Implied Probability | Target Deal Value | Incremental Value Add | Outcome Share Price |
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Prediction market decision tree and equity arbitrage model for $56B eBay vs Collectibles acquisition
| Outcome Path | Implied Probability | Target Deal Value | Incremental Value Add | Outcome Share Price |
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The stored pivot weight point seven multiplies entered collectibles value four point five billion to give three point one five. Its eBay branch scales fifty-six by twenty-four point five over fifty-six, then multiplies assigned weight point one five, giving three point six seven five. Bars share one hundred pixels per billion. These weights are hypothetical inputs, not validated market probabilities or current deal facts. Adding assigned branch contributions three point one five and three point six seven five, plus zero for no deal, gives six point eight two five billion. Bars compare the first contribution with the total at seventy pixels per billion. The saved no-deal branch has zero incremental value, not zero underlying stock value. This is the source weighted sum, not a forecast or investment recommendation. The program divides assigned incremental value six point eight two five billion by assumed one point five six eight nine six five five billion shares, producing about four point three five per share. Adding entered base twenty-two point fifty produces about twenty-six point eighty-five. Bars compare base and calculated label at eighteen pixels per dollar. Company inputs, probabilities and transaction claims are unverified; original full raw JSON/reset/responsive/footer checks preserve the source.