Poll Participation Paradox Simulator

Agent Sampling Pipeline: Latent Population → Non-Response Filter → Observed Ballot Status: Active

Latent Pop: 5,000

Lurker Non-Respondents: 0

Observed Votes: 0

Observed YES

88.4%

Votes: 0

Observed NO

11.6%

Votes: 0

Selection Bias Δ

+70.4%

Observed vs Ground Truth

Non-Response Rate

92.3%

Silent Lurker Majority

Latent Ground Truth (Whole Population) YES: 18.0% | NO: 82.0%

True Poll-Takers: 18.0% True Lurkers: 82.0%

Observed Survey Sample (Self-Selected) YES: 88.4% | NO: 11.6%

Sample YES: 88.4% Sample NO: 11.6%

Scenario Presets

Survey & Behavior Parameters

Latent 'YES' Propensity 18%

Response Friction Barrier 0.65

Meta-Question Entanglement 0.90

Post-Stratification Re-Weighting

Why does this happen?
When an online survey asks people if they take online surveys, only people who take online surveys participate. The non-respondents (the ~82% majority who never answer) are virtually absent from the sample, manufacturing a false ~88% consensus.