Sentiment Trajectory & Margins
Sample N = 1,050 • MoE ±3.1% • Subgroup: Republican voters
Statistically significant at p < 0.001
Initial (Jan)
72%
Baseline measure
Current
29%
95% CI: 25.9% - 32.1%
Net Shift
-43
-43 percentage points
Velocity
-7.17% per month
6-month cycle
Editorial Finding: Over the 6-month tracking cycle, favorable economic appraisal among Republican voters dropped from 72% to 29% (-43 percentage points). With a sample of 1,050 and margin of error of ±3.1%, the true current sentiment lies strictly within 25.9% - 32.1%. The shift velocity is -7.17% per month.
Poll Simulation Controls
Direct Parameter Manipulation
72%
29%
1,050
6 mo
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