Historical Shift Presets
Polymarket Live FeedSimulation Variables
resurfaced_posts_recantation
42.0%
Market probability prior to breaking statement news.
$250,000
Total depth in USD order book buffering price slippage.
0.18
Media reach and candidate statement severity rating.
Probability Trajectory Timeline
T-0h to T+24hOrder Book Bid-Ask Depth Chart
Spread: 3.2¢Dynamic order book depth re-balancing following recantation liquidity shock.
Impact Summary
Adjusted Yes Odds
28.20%
-13.80%
Est. Volume Spike (USD)
$142,500
24h Surge
Implied Sentiment Delta
-0.1380
Bayesian Shift
Market Confidence Score
0.7600
HIGH DEPTH
Model Interpretation:
Francesca Hong's statement recantation causes an immediate -13.80% drop in Yes outcome probability. The $250k liquidity pool absorbs $142.5k in slippage volume.
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