Active Prediction Market
ID: PM-US-POL-2026-HC
"The Great Healthcare Plan" Passes Congress in 2026
Trigger Event: Official Congressional enactment signature prior to Dec 31, 2026.
Initial Implied Probability
28.0%
Post-News Probability
54.0%
Post-Trade YES Price
30.0¢
Order Book Depth & Liquidity Absorption
Bids (YES Buy)
Asks (YES Sell)
Highest Bid Wall:
27.0¢ ($15,000)
Lowest Ask Wall:
29.0¢ ($12,000)
Probability Trajectory & Legislative Milestones
75% (Strong Support)
Updates log-odds of legislative passage given presidential endorsement:
P(Pass|News) = (P_init * L) / [P_init * L + (1 - P_init)]
Trade Execution Simulator
Polymarket Matching Engine
$5,000
$100
$10,000
$25,000
$50,000
Execution Metric
Simulated Result
Executed Shares:
Average Fill Price:
$0.2984
Order Slippage:
6.57%
Post-Trade Price Level:
30.0¢
Payout if YES Resolves ($1.00):
$16,756.00
Net ROI at Resolution:
+235.12%
Live Order Book Tiers Depth Breakdown
TYPE
PRICE
VOLUME
Spread / Midpoint: 1.0¢ / 28.0¢
Analysis & Scenario Report
Ready to Export
A $5,000 BUY YES order clears 16,756 total shares across ask tiers with an average fill price of $0.2984 (6.57% slippage). Post-trade market price shifts to 30.0¢. If the contract resolves YES upon bill passage, net return equals +235.12% ($16,756.00 payout).