NLDS Game 4 | ATL Leads 2-1
ATL
4 - 3
PHI
BOT 9TH
●●○ 2 Outs
Game Win Probability
76.4% ATL
Braves: 76.4%
Phillies: 23.6%
Series Advance Probability
89.2% ATL
Braves Advance: 89.2%
Phillies Advance: 10.8%
Clutch Full-Count Swing: Ball in Play
9th Inning High-Leverage Battle: 3-2 Slider on outside edge.
WPA Delta: +0.142
Shift in Game Win Prob
| Outcome Scenario | Series Result | Estimated Odds | NLDS Historical Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braves Clinch Today (Game 4) | Braves win 3-1 | 76.4% | Advances to NLCS (First over PHI) |
| Phillies Force Game 5 Winner-Take-All | Series tied 2-2 | 23.6% | Deciding Game 5 at Truist Park |
| Phillies Historic Comeback Series Win | Phillies win 3-2 | 10.8% | Requires 2 straight elimination wins |
The Mathematics of October Baseball: Leverage Index & Series Probability
Leverage Index (LI & pLI)
Quantifies how much game win probability swings on an individual plate appearance compared to an average baseball event (LI = 1.0). Late-inning tie or 1-run games with runners on base routinely spike LI over 4.5.
Run Expectancy Matrix (RE24)
Derived from tens of thousands of Major League innings, RE24 computes the expected number of runs scored in an inning given 24 distinct base-out states (from 0 outs, bases empty = 0.50 runs to 0 outs, bases loaded = 2.37 runs).
Series Win Probability Decay
In a short 3 or 5-game postseason series, every victory causes an asymmetrical drop in the opponent's chances. Overcoming a 2-1 deficit in a 5-game series occurs historically in only ~28% of MLB postseason matchups.