Pre-Hit Win Exp.
14.2%
Trailing -4
Post-Hit Win Exp.
31.8%
+17.6% WPA
Leverage Index (LI)
2.84
High Leverage
Run Exp. Remaining
1.44
+0.88 RE
Win Expectancy Progression Curve (9-Inning Trajectory)
Live MLB Markov Model#3
Jeremy Peña — High Leverage Split
SS • Houston Astros • Clutch Profile
| Leverage State | PA | BA / OBP / SLG | Hard-Hit% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Leverage (LI > 1.5) | 142 | .294 / .348 / .476 | 43.8% | +2.18 |
| Medium Leverage | 210 | .261 / .312 / .415 | 38.2% | +0.42 |
| Trailing by 2-4 Runs | 98 | .306 / .364 / .510 | 46.1% | +1.64 |
Deficit-Halving Multiplier Matrix
Empirical MLB comeback rate changes when cutting deficits in half across game thirds:
| Transition | Inn 1-3 | Inn 4-6 | Inn 7-9 |
|---|---|---|---|
| -6 to -3 Runs | 18.4% → 34.1% | 8.9% → 22.4% | 1.8% → 9.2% |
| -4 to -2 Runs | 29.2% → 43.5% | 14.2% → 31.8% | 4.7% → 18.9% |
| -2 to -1 Runs | 38.1% → 46.8% | 26.5% → 40.2% | 12.4% → 31.5% |