Prediction Market Regulatory Jurisdiction Explorer

Contract & Risk Assessment

Preset Market Contracts

Contract Title

Underlying Asset / Reference Metric

Citadel Securities Petition Overlay Assert SEC oversight on equity-linked wagers to prevent insider trading & market manipulation

Insider Trading / Manipulation Vulnerability High (direct equity nexus)

Market Volume / Systemic Nexus Score 74

Commodity / Event-Contract Swap Nexus Low (30%)

Regulatory Authority Verdict Regulatory Review Required

Recommended Jurisdiction SEC

Jurisdictional Conflict High Overlap

Current Designated Body CFTC

Systemic Risk Score 74

SEC Securities Nexus (68%) CFTC Commodities Nexus (32%)

SEC 68%

CFTC 32%

Primary Jurisdictional Rationale

Direct link to publicly-traded company equity triggers securities oversight under Citadel argument

Statutory Decision Audit Trail

17 CFR § 40.11 CEA Exclusion: CFTC gaming/unlawful activity scrutiny active.

Securities Exchange Act Section 10(b) / Rule 10b-5: High susceptibility to non-public corporate disclosures.

Citadel Petition Thesis: Binary corporate outcomes mirror swap-based securities under SEC oversight.