Prediction Market Risk & Incentive Probe NYC Council Inquiry

Quantitative modeling of deposit bonus leverage churn, spread friction, and municipal regulatory exposure

Municipal Regulatory Scrutiny Index
82
Demographic Risk Score
88
Vulnerability & viral cascade index
Effective Leverage Ratio
2.0x
Bonus match capital multiplier
Wagering Churn Loss
$78.20
Capital decay via spread friction
Expected Retail Loss %
38.4%
Expected retail capital drawdown
Order Book Liquidity & Spread Friction (D3)
Spread: 4.5%
Probability & Retail Drawdown Curve (Chart.js)
Expected Loss Skew

Regulatory Compliance Audit Summary

Regulatory Classification: High Risk - Predatory Pattern Flagged

Audit Parameter Current Value NYC Council Threshold Compliance Assessment
Municipal Regulatory Scrutiny Index (MRSI) 82 / 100 < 50.0 HIGH SCRUTINY
Turnover Requirement Multiplier 5x turnover ($1,000 total) ≤ 3x turnover EXCESSIVE TURNOVER
Bid-Ask Spread Friction Loss $78.20 / $200 capital ≤ 2.5% per trade PREDATORY CHURN
Demographic Vulnerability Reach Young Adult (18-24) General Adult Population VULNERABLE TARGETING
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