Notional Outstanding - Why Your Model and the Website Disagree

drag orbit · scroll zoom

MODEL INPUTS

Shares outstanding 105.1M

Stated amount / share $100

ATM sales not yet reported 0.23M sh

Reporting lag 3 days

The orange cap on the tower is issuance your model expects but the issuer hasn't published yet. Notional ≠ market value: it's face amount, independent of the trading price.

Q: A $23M gap on $10.5B is what % discrepancy?

What "notional" means

For a preferred security, notional (face) outstanding is shares × stated amount — the base used for dividends and liquidation preference. A $100-stated preferred paying 9% yields $9.00/share/year regardless of where it trades.

Where gaps come from

Continuous at-the-market (ATM) issuance means shares are sold daily, but websites and filings update on a lag (T+2 settlement, weekly disclosure, 8-K timing). A model extrapolating the sales pace will run slightly ahead of — or behind — official numbers.

Why small gaps matter

A 0.2% discrepancy sounds trivial, but dividend obligations scale with notional: $23M of face at a 9% coupon is ~$2.07M/year of extra payments. Careful modelers reconcile every line because errors compound across a capital stack.

How to reconcile

1) Pin each source to its as-of date. 2) Check for unsettled ATM sales between the dates. 3) Verify stated amount vs issue price (they can differ). 4) If the gap persists, one source has a data error — flag it publicly, politely, with math shown.