Breakingviews Analytics

Prison Capital & Security Risk Model

1. Portfolio & Debt Parameters
Total Municipal Bond Debt ($M) $120M
Bond Coupon Rate (%) 6.25%
Guaranteed Floor Clause 75%
2. Facility Tier Allocations
Facility Alpha Minimum Security
Operational Beds 1,800
Per Diem Rate ($/day) $92
Occupancy Rate (%) 88%
Staff Ratio (Officers/Inmate) 0.18
Facility Beta Supermax Unit
Operational Beds 900
Per Diem Rate ($/day) $165
Occupancy Rate (%) 96%
Staff Ratio (Officers/Inmate) 0.48
Annual Net EBITDA
$0.0M
Margin: 0.0%
Debt Service Coverage (DSCR)
0.00x
Min Covenant: 1.25x
Annual Debt Service
$0.0M
20-Yr Amortized Bond
Bond Credit Implication
BBB+
Investment Grade
10-Year Pro-Forma Cash Flow & Debt Service Cliff Green = Net Free Cash Flow | Amber = Annual Debt Service
Facility Security Level Unit Economics Breakdown
Facility Unit Security Level Beds (Eff.) Gross Revenue Labor & Staff OpEx Physical Security & CapEx EBITDA Contribution
Risk Synthesis & Structural Covenants

Breakingviews Thesis: Supermax facilities generate higher gross per-diem rates ($165/day) but suffer compressed cash buffers due to intense staffing requirements (0.48 officer-to-inmate ratio) and specialized electronic surveillance maintenance. Minimum security facilities act as cash-flow stabilizers providing essential portfolio debt-service resilience during legislative contract shocks.

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