Red Sox Prospect Milestone Double-A Eastern League MVP Age ≤ 20 Cohort Analysis

Prospect Power Benchmark Lab

Red Sox top prospect Franklin Arias completed a historic age-20 season with 25 HR, a .323 AVG, and a .957 OPS—becoming Boston’s first age-20 or younger prospect to hit 25 HR since Anthony Rizzo in 2010. Explore the cohort data, compare historic profiles, and test custom prospect slash lines.

Age-Relative HR Tier
99th %
Historical Elite
Slash Power Index
94.8
Weighted ISO & OPS
Prospect Similarity
A. Rizzo '10
BOS System Twin
MLB Rank Status
No. 3
Eastern Lg MVP

Milestone Cohort Comparison: Under-21 20+ HR Minor League Seasons

Source-grounded & Verified MiLB Milestones
Player Org Year Age Level HR AVG OPS wRC+ Notable Outcome
Comparing Franklin Arias against historical age-20 minor league power seasons.

Franklin Arias & The Age-20 25-HR Benchmark

In minor league baseball history, hitting 25+ home runs at age 20 or younger in full-season upper minors (especially Double-A) is one of the rarest indicators of elite offensive ceiling.

  • Anthony Rizzo (2010): The last Boston Red Sox prospect to achieve 25 HR at age 20 (playing between High-A Salem and Double-A Portland with 25 HR, 100 RBI).
  • Rafael Devers (2017): Hit 25 total minor & major league HR at age 20, cementing his middle-of-the-order status.
  • Franklin Arias (Current): Combined elite contact (.323 AVG) with 25 HR and a .957 OPS, taking Eastern League MVP honors and climbing to MLB No. 3 overall prospect status.

Evaluation Metrics Explained

Upper-minor performance is normalized by age relativity to identify genuine development leaps:

  • Age Relativity Index: Double-A average age is typically 24.1 years. An age-20 hitter is more than 4 years younger than league competition.
  • Isolated Power (ISO): Slugging minus batting average (.252 for Arias represents premier extra-base ability).
  • Slash Power Index (SPI): A composite weighting of OPS, ISO, and age-discounted run-production factors to measure projectable major-league thump.
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