Evaluate whether a struggling NFL starter should be benched. Test QB pocket decision times, sack rates, and route progressions against specific defensive coverage shells to simulate 100-drive EPA distributions.
Opponent creates 38% pressure with single-high coverages. QB A's 2.95s time-to-throw and 24.5% P2S% generates severe sack drive-killers. Switching to QB B adds projected +0.19 EPA/play and +0.62 points per drive.
Pass protection is widely misunderstood as purely an offensive line metric. Modern NFL research proves P2S% is quarterback-dependent and remarkably sticky year-over-year. QBs with P2S% over 20% hold the ball too long and fail to find their hot read before edge blitzes hit home.
Single-high defenses (Cover 1 & Cover 3) leave vertical boundaries and seam windows open but stack the box against the run. Two-high shells (Cover 2 & Quarters) invite underneath intermediate passes while limiting explosive throws downfield.
Raw passing yards deceive because a 7-yard completion on 3rd-and-9 is a net loss in drive probability. EPA measures the true point expectancy change on every down and distance, providing an honest baseline for bench-or-start quarterback evaluations.